. . . On The Election 2008

The media is making a big deal about 100 days left in the 2008 campaign. I guess we have FDR to thank for the 100 days hoopla nonsense. But I guess it is time to dive into the mix with some thoughts so far. No predictions yet.

Can John McCain win the election? Will the United States ever elect a Vietnam War veteran? This is probably our last chance (not that that matters really in the big picture but such questions are fun). If Obama is elected and reelected the average Vietnam Vet will be almost McCain's age in 2016. That puts you in Bob Dole land i.e. we really appreciate everything you did as a young man for our country, the sacrifices and all, buuuut. No thanks. We like this young "hip" model (Clinton, Obama). The one we can project our future ambitions onto.

Will the United States actually elect the first black American? (Even though Obama is as much white as black) As an historian I do find it ironic that we still hold on to antiquated ideas about race/blood/percentages to determine "what" someone is. If you were 1/8th African back in the day you were considered black. Or is it a symptom of a patriarchal society. Example Tiger Woods' mother's Asian heritage is swept under the rug just like Obama's mother's European heritage. Something to ponder.

America has never in 232 years elected a person with a vowel at the end of their name for president. No Italians, no Greeks, no Spanish, no Pole, no Slav. Every American president has been predominately English, Scottish, Dutch, Irish, or Germany. Obama is certainly outside the box, while McCain fits nicely in it. No doubt if Obama wins it will be historic on numerous levels.

But what has been the most interesting and what got me thinking about all this in the first place is this. So far Obama has consistently polled around 47%, HERE , no real change from even the primary season. Even with the media drooling all over him and the general apathy of the Republicans he can't break the 50% mark. The gap between the two candidates usually comes down to McCain's fluctuating numbers. But when people step into the voting booth in November things may be different when they finally have to make a decision.

In the last 40 years only one Democratic president has broken the 50% mark in the popular vote. And that was Carter in 1976 and that was right after Watergate folks and he only hit 50.1%! In that same time 4 Republicans have passed the 50% mark. In the last 64 years (since 1944 when FDR defeated Dewey) only 2 Democrats have broken the 50% barrier--LBJ in '64 and Carter. The GOP has done it 6 times in that same span. Makes you think how this blanket assumption of Democratic dominance permeates society. That's for another article.

Obviously Obama doesn't need to hit 50% to win(see Truman, JFK, Clinton) but for any mandate in dealing with Congress it would be nice. Truman, Carter, Clinton and JFK for that matter had a mediocre to poor success with Congress during their terms. The left loves to tear itself apart once in power. Only FDR truly held the coalition together and even he lost much of his support with Congress by the end of his second term. If Obama does win I predict he will not break 50%. See there was one prediction.

The bigger pressure is on McCain. If you're pessimistic you can see this whole election being a one way ticket to nowhere for the GOP. And believe me it is thick among the ranks. No one is excited. Heck, even I have a tough time getting excited, hence the first original blog on the election. When a candidate is not the favorite among the rank and file and he has liabilities looking the best on TV there will be problems. However, if you're optimistic (and those are few and far between) you could say this is right where McCain wants him. His campaign was lackluster a year ago and everyone had him buried. He came back just as he has done every other time in his life) I will be shocked if McCain rolls over ala Dole. If the GOP could simply be more positive (some of that hope that Obama hocks, eh?) this could be a very close race at the end.

Last point for now. The Democrats usually always find a way to lose. Makes you wonder why? Could it be their policies? Top-down government? Royalists masquerading as democrats? The stench of appeasement? Hmm.